In review/submitted
Gilbert, A., Kay, J., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bailey, D.A., Holland, M.M., Jahn, A., and Schneider, D., Observed Winds Alone Cannot Explain Recent Arctic Warming and Sea Ice Loss, submitted, Environmental research: climate
Donohoe, A., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., and Feldl, N., An energetic perspective on heatwaves using a novel calculation instantaneous atmospheric heat flux convergence, submitted, Journal of Climate
Boehm, C., Thompson, D., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Interpretation of Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Loss: The Key Role of the Southern Annular Mode during the Seasonal Sea Ice Maximum, submitted, Communications Earth \& Environment
Topal, D.,, Fichefet, T., Dalaiden, Q.,, Goosse, H., Massonnet, F., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,, Wavier atmospheric circulation steers winter Antarctic sea ice trends, in review, Nature
2025/in press/accepted
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., DeRepentigny, P., and Frierson, D., Increasing boreal fires reduce future global warming and sea ice loss, in press, PNAS
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bilbao, R., Donohoe, A., and S. Materia, 2025. Record warmth of 2023 and 2024 was highly predictable and resulted from ENSO transition and Northern Hemisphere absorbed shortwave anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 52,e2025GL115614, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115614
Cesana, G.V., Roach, L.A. and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2025. Clouds are crucial to capture Antarctic sea ice variability, Geophysical Research Letters, 52(3), p.e2024GL113322.
2024
Espinosa, Z., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., and C.M.Bitz, 2024, Record Low Antarctic Sea Ice in Austral Winter 2023: Mechanisms and Predictability, Nature Communications Earth Environment, 5, 723. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01772-2
Riviere, M., et al, 2024, The THINICE field campaign: Interactions between Arctic cyclones, tropopause polar vortices, clouds and sea ice in summer, Bulletin of the American Meteorologi\cal Society
Bianco, E., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Materia, S., Ruggieri, P., Iovino, D. and Masina, S., 2024. CMIP6 models underestimate Arctic sea ice loss during the Early Twentieth-Century Warming, despite simulating large low-frequency sea ice variability. Journal of Climate, 37(23), pp.6305-6321.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Brenner, S., Webster, M., Horvat, C., Foss, O., and C.M.Bitz, 2024, Model biases in simulating extreme sea ice loss associated with the record January 2022 Arctic cyclone, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 129(8)
M. A. Webster, A. Riihela, S. Kacimi, T. J. Ballinger, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, C. P. Parker, and L. Boisvert, 2024, Summer snow on Arctic sea ice modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, Nature Geoscience , 17, 995–1002, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01525-y
Bushuk, M., and Coauthors, 2024, Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multi-Model Seasonal Skill Comparison, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105, E1170-E1203
Armour, K.C., Proistosescu, C., Dong, Y., Hahn, L.C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Pauling, A.G., Jnglin Wills, R.C., Andrews, T., Stuecker, M.F., Po-Chedley, S. and Mitevski, I., 2024. Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(12), p.e2312093121.
2023
Roach, L.A., Mankoff, K.D., Romanou, A., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Haine, T.W. and Schmidt, G.A., 2023. Winds and meltwater together lead to Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea ice expansion. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(24), p.e2023GL105948.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Cox, T., Espinosa, Z.I. and Donohoe, A., 2023. The largest ever recorded heatwave - Characteristics and attribution of the Antarctic heatwave of March 2022. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(17), p.e2023GL104910.
Massonnet, F., Barreira, S., Barthelemy, A., Bilbao, R., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Blockley, E., Bromwich, D.H., Bushuk, M., Dong, X., Goessling, H.F. and Hobbs, W., 2023. SIPN South: six years of coordinated seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions. Frontiers in Marine Science, 10, p.1148899.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bushuk, M., Massonnet, F., Hamilton, L., Bitz, C.M., Meier, W., and Bhatt, U. S., Forecast skill of the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2022, Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (6), e2022GL102531
Brennan, M.K., Hakim, G.J., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Monthly Arctic sea-ice prediction with a linear inverse model, Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (7), e2022GL101656
Goosse, H., Allende Contador, S., Bitz, C.M., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Eayrs, C., Fichefet, T., Himmic,h K., Huot, P-V., Klein, F., Marchi, S., Massonnet, F., Mezzina, B., Pelletier, C., Roach, L.A., Vancoppenolle, M., and van Lipzig, N.P.M., Modulation of the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent by sea ice processes and feedbacks with the ocean and the atmosphere, The Cryosphere , 17, 407-425
2022
Roach, L., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Ragen, Z., Cheng, W., Armour, K., and Bitz, C.M., The impact of winds on AMOC in a fully-coupled climate model, Geophysical Research Letters , p.e2022GL101203
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Webster, M., Boisvert, L., Parker, C., and Horvat, C., 2022, Record Arctic cyclone of January 2022: characteristics, impacts, and predictability, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 127(21), e2022JD037161
Dong, Y., Armour, K., Battisti, D., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2022, Two-way teleconnections between the Southern Ocean and the tropical Pacific via a dynamic feedback, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0080.1, Journal of Climate
Kay, J.E., DuVivier A. K, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Deser, C., Jahn, A., Singh, H., Smith, M., Webster, M. A., Edwards, J., Lee, S. S., Rodgers, K. B., and Roosenbloom, N. Less surface sea ice melt in the CESM2 improves Arctic sea ice simulation with minimal non-polar climate impacts, accepted, JAMES
Roach, L. A., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2022, Observed winds crucial for September Arctic sea ice loss, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL097884. https://doi. org/10.1029/2022GL097884
Roach, L. A., Eisenman, I., Wagner, T. J. W., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., and Bitz, C.M., 2022, Asymmetry in the seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea ice due to insolation, Nature Geoscience , https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00913-6
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., I. Eisenman, S. Zhang, S. Sun, and A. Donohoe, 2022, New perspectives on the enigma of expanding Antarctic sea ice, Eos, 103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EO220076.
McGraw, M.C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E, Clancy, R.P., and Bitz, C.M., 2022, Understanding the Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Subseasonal Timescales, Journal of Climate, 35(4), 1179-1196.
Clancy, R., Bitz, C.M., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., McGraw, M., and Cavallo, S.,2022, A cyclone-centered perspective on the drivers of asymmetric patterns in the atmosphere and sea ice during Arctic cyclones, Journal of Climate, 35(1), 73-89.
2021
Clancy, R., Bitz, C.M., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2021, The influence of ENSO on Arctic sea ice in large ensembles and observations, Journal of Climate, 34(24), 9585-9604.
Andersson, T. R., Hosking, J. S., Perez-Ortiz, M., Paige, B., Elliott, A., Russell, C., ... & Shuckburgh, E. (2021). Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning, Nature Communications, 12, 5124, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4
MacGregor, J., et al., 2021, The scientific legacy of NASA's Operation IceBridge, Reviews of Geophysics, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020RG000712
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Donohoe, A., Roach, L. A., DuVivier, A., and Bitz, C. M., 2021, High-Frequency Sea Ice Variability in Observations and Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(14), e2020GL092356.
Zhang, Y. F., Bitz, C. M., Anderson, J. L., Collins, N. S., Hoar, T. J., Raeder, K. D., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. (2021). Estimating parameters in a sea ice model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The Cryosphere, 15(3), 1277-1284.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Roach, L.A., Donohoe, A., and Ding, Q., 2021, Impact of winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on Antarctic sea ice trends and variability, Journal of Climate, 34(3), pp.949-965
Steele, M., Eicken, H., Bhatt, U., Bieniek, P., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Wiggins, H., Turner-Bogren, B., Hamilton, L., Little, J., Massonnet, F. and Meier, W.N., 2021. Moving Sea Ice Prediction Forward Via Community Intercomparison, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp.1-7.
2020
Song, Y., Behrangi, A., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Assessment of Satellite and Reanalysis Precipitation Estimates over Arctic Sea Ice, Geophysical Research Letters, 47(16), p.e2020GL088970
Bushuk, M., Winton, M., Bonan, D., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., and Delworth, T., A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, Geophysical Research Letters, p.e2020GL088335
Horvat, C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. and Petty, A., 2020, Observing waves in sea ice with ICESat-2, Geophysical Research Letters, e2020GL087629.
Donohoe, A., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Schweiger, A., and Rasch, P., Ice albedo feedback: comparison of model and observational based estimates, Journal of Climate, 33(13), pp.5743-5765
Brennan, M.K., Hakim, G.J., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2020, Arctic sea ice variability during the Instrumental Era, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086843. https:// doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086843
Bonan, D., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2020, Nonstationary teleconnection between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic sea ice, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL085666. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085666
2019
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., and Ding, Q., 2019, Tropical and mid-latitude impacts on seasonal polar predictability in the Community Earth System Model, Journal of Climate, 32,5997-6014, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0088.1
Wayand, N., Bitz, C.M., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., A Year-Round Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Sea Ice Prediction Portal, Geophysical Research Letters, 46(6), 3298-3307.
Ding, Q., Schweiger, A., L`Heureux, M., Steig, E.J., Battisti, D.S., Johnson, N.C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Po-Chedley, S., Zhang, Q., Harnos, K. and Bushuk, M., 2019. Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations. Nature Geoscience, 12(1), p.28.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, and Bushuk, M. Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs, 2019, Climate Dynamics, 52(9-10), pp.5555-5566, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4461-3
2018
Goldenson, N., Leung, L.R., Bitz, C.M. and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2018. Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Mountain Snowpack in the Western United States. Journal of Climate, 31(24), pp.9921-9940.
Ordoñez, A.C., Bitz, C.M. and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2018. Processes Controlling Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in the Community Earth System Model. Journal of Climate, 31(23), pp.9771-9786.
Massonnet, F, Vancoppenolle, M, Goose, H, Docquier D, Fichefet, F, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., 2018, Arctic sea-ice change tied to its mean state through thermodynamic processes, Nature Climate Change, 8, 599-603
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Webster, M, Farrell, S, and Bitz, C. M., 2018, Reconstruction of Arctic snow on sea ice, Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 123, 3588-3602
2017
Ding, Q., Schweiger, A., L'Heureux, M., Battisti, D.S., Po-Chedley, S., Johnson, N.C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Harnos, K., Zhang, Q., Eastman, R. and Steig, E.J., 2017. Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice, Nature Climate Change, 7(4), pp.289-295.
2016
Cheng, W., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bitz, C.M., Ladd, C., Stabeno, P., (2016) Diagnostic sea ice predictability in the pan-Arctic and US Arctic regional seas, Geophysical Research Letters, , 43(22), pp.11-688.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, A. Barthélemy M. Chevallier R. Cullather N. Fuĉkar F. Massonnet P. Posey W. Wang J. Zhang C. Ardilouze C. M. Bitz G. Vernieres A. Wallcraft M. Wang, (2016) Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales, Climate Dynamics,, 49(4), pp.1399-1410.
2015
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Farrell S, Newman, T, and Bitz, C. M., (2015) Snow cover on Arctic Sea ice in observations and an Earth System Model, Geophysical Research Letters, 42(23),pp.10-342
[pdf]
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Cullather, R, Wanqiu, W, Zhang, J, and Bitz, C. M., (2015) Model skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in a sea-ice prediction system, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL065860
[pdf]
Dukhovskoy D, Ubnoske J, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Heister H, and Proshutinsky A Y (2015) Skill metrics for evaluation and comparison of sea ice models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, doi:10.1002/2015JC010989
Stroeve, J, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Guemas, V. Howell, S. Massonnet, F, and Tietsche, S (2015) Improving predictions of Arctic sea ice extent, EOS, 96, doi:10.1029/2015EO031431
2014
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, and CM Bitz (2014) Characteristics of Arctic sea-ice thickness variability in GCMs , Journal of Climate, 27, 8244-8258, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00345.1
[pdf]
Virginie Guemas, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Matthieu Chevallier, Jonathan J Day, Michel Déqué, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes, Neven Fuckar, Agathe Germe, Ed Hawkins, Sarah Keeley, Torben Koenigk, David Salas y Mélia, Steffen Tietsche (2014)
A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, in press
Stroeve, J. Hamilton, L. C. Bitz, M. and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E (2014) Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013 Geophysical Research Letters, 41(7), 2411-2418
2013
Holland, M. M. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Kay, J. and Vavrus, S. (2013) Initial - value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the community climate system model 3, Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (10), 2121-2124
2012
Kay, J. E., Holland, M. M., Bitz, C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Conley, A., Gettelman, A., and D. Bailey (2012) The influence of local feedbacks and northward heat transport on the equilibrium Arctic climate response to increased greenhouse gas forcing in coupled climate models, Journal of Climate, 25, 5433-5450, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00622.1 [pdf]
2011
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, CM Bitz and MM Holland (2011) Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L18503, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048807
[pdf]
Armour KC, I Eisenman, E Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, KE McCusker, and CM Bitz (2011) The reversibility of
sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art climate model, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L16705,
doi: 10.1029/2011GL048739
[pdf]
[grl research highlight]
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, KC Armour, CM Bitz and E DeWeaver (2011) Persistence and inherent predictability of
Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations, Journal of Climate, 24, 231-250, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1
[pdf]
From way back in the day...
Research on Spanish glaciers:
Dinamica de los glaciares del Pirineo aragones: resultados de la campaña glaciologica del año 1998(2000), Javier Chueca Cia, Asuncion Julian Andres, Jose Luis Peña Monne, E. Blanchard Wrigglesworth, Boletin Glaciologico Aragones, (1), 13-41
...and Spanish weather
The 1997 veranillo of San Miguel in north-eastern Spain (1999), E. Blanchard Wrigglesworth
Weather, 54, 4, 114-119.
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