Experiment 14, 01-Mar-2004 - 31-Aug-2004

Settings for experiment 14
Settings for verification:
Include cheating data true
Remove selected networks true
Networks Kept HN SN CU CM CC SA EC AW SQ AV MC PN DT BF
Remove big obs-grid elevation diffs false
Lapse rate correction true
Min. error for a help/hurt, point (deg.C) 0.50
Min. error for a help/hurt, dom avg(deg.C) 0.20

2-m Temperature

Forecast Hour 06 Forecast Hour 12 Forecast Hour 18 Forecast Hour 24
No BC BC BC-cheat No BC BC BC-cheat No BC BC BC-cheat No BC BC BC-cheat
MAE 1.86 1.75 1.35 2.20 2.02 1.54 2.10 1.95 1.34 2.57 2.13 1.40
MAE Skill Score n/a 0.06 0.27 n/a 0.08 0.30 n/a 0.07 0.36 n/a 0.17 0.46
MAE of Positive Errors 1.86 1.72 1.32 2.28 2.03 1.55 1.88 1.92 1.31 1.88 2.06 1.28
MAE of Negative Errors 1.86 1.77 1.38 2.08 2.02 1.54 2.26 1.98 1.38 2.87 2.20 1.50
ME 0.14 -0.06 -0.06 0.41 -0.02 0.03 -0.51 -0.09 -0.06 -1.44 -0.24 -0.24
Help Fraction, point n/a 0.29 0.42 n/a 0.35 0.47 n/a 0.31 0.47 n/a 0.42 0.56
Hurt Fraction, point n/a 0.21 0.15 n/a 0.24 0.16 n/a 0.23 0.14 n/a 0.24 0.12
Help/Hurt Fraction, point n/a 1.36 2.87 n/a 1.42 2.93 n/a 1.32 3.34 n/a 1.75 4.50
Mean Help, point n/a -1.21 -1.56 n/a -1.40 -1.81 n/a -1.44 -1.92 n/a -1.89 -2.35
Mean Hurt, point n/a 1.12 1.13 n/a 1.29 1.29 n/a 1.26 1.19 n/a 1.50 1.29
Help Fraction, domain avg n/a 0.28 0.99 n/a 0.44 1.00 n/a 0.31 1.00 n/a 0.60 0.99
Hurt Fraction, domain avg n/a 0.02 0.00 n/a 0.03 0.00 n/a 0.04 0.00 n/a 0.05 0.00
Help/Hurt Fraction, domain avg n/a 12.75 Inf n/a 13.33 Inf n/a 8.00 Inf n/a 10.90 Inf
Mean Help, domain avg n/a -0.27 -0.51 n/a -0.35 -0.65 n/a -0.46 -0.76 n/a -0.76 -1.17
Mean Hurt, domain avg n/a 0.24 NaN n/a 0.27 NaN n/a 0.36 NaN n/a 0.43 NaN

Time Series Plots, Forecast Hour 06
Time Series Plots, Forecast Hour 12
Time Series Plots, Forecast Hour 18
Time Series Plots, Forecast Hour 24