Spatio-temporal structure of forced and unforced variability across the Holocene: from proxies to process

University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

January 23-25, 2019

Background: Understanding the structure of natural variability is necessary to identify and attribute anthropogenically forced climatic changes. At the same time, the scaling structure of variability contains information about the underlying dynamics of the climate system. Leveraging the information inherent in this structure is particularly crucial given the relatively short record of anthropogenic climate change. The Holocene presents the most promising interval for studying the scaling structure of variability, due to its similarity to modern climate.

The goal of this workshop is to untagle the structure of forced and unforced variability across the Holocene from the sparse, noisy, and indirect proxy record.

Goals: The workshop will address the spatio-temporal scaling structure of forced and unforced variability across the Holocene, by bringing together theory, models, proxies. The workshop will be divided by theme into three working groups:

  • Theory and models: What physical mechanisms give rise to the spatial and temporal scaling of variability? How can do we encode the physics into frameworks such as covariance functions or process spectra that can be inferred from the data? We draw on palaeoclimate modeling, nonlinear geophysics, and theoretical climate dynamics. 
  • Proxies: How do proxies capture and alter the scaling structure of climate variability? We will rely on on proxy-forward modeling, and techniques for reconstructing temperature and forcing.
  • Bridging observations and theory: How do we use the proxies to constrain the physics? We will draw on techniques such as palaeoclimate reanalysis, Bayesian inference, and spectral estimates, with the ultimate goal of constraining physical models of varying complexity from the proxy record. 

Schedule of talks (link)
Venue:  Alder auditorium at UW (Alder Hall) (UW campus map)
Talks are open to the UW community

Accomodations:  There are three hotels near UW that will give you a slightly discounted rate for a registered workshop organized by JISAO: Watertown Hotel , University Inn , Silver Cloud Inn .

Directions: From SeaTac airport, the light rail (LINK) takes you directly to the University district, the campus, and the hotels

  • Contact: Cristian Proistosescu:

Preliminary list of speakers:

  • Sylvia Dee, Rice University
  • Peter Huybers, Harvard University
  • Greg Hakim, University of Washington
  • David Battisti, University of Washington
  • Sara Sanchez, University of Washington
  • Thomas Laepple, AWI, Potsdam
  • Shaun Lovejoy, McGill University