Atmospheric Sciences 452
Weather Forecasting and Advanced Synoptic Meteorology
Instructors:
Professor Cliff Mass, 612 ATG, 685-0910,email: cliff@atmos.washington.edu
Dr. Nick Bond, 526-6459,
email:bond@pmel.noaa.gov
Class Hours: MW 1:30-4:20 PM, TTHF 1:30-3:20 PM
Lectures generally MWF 1:30-2:20 PM, but occasionally will occur on Tuesdays or Thursdays.
Office Hours: Anytime we are in our offices. Appointments can be made if needed. Email questions are welcome.
Book: None. But lots of handouts and web-based materials.
Grading: 25% forecasting, 25% labs and map discussion, 25% midterm, 25% final
Class Web Site: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/452.html
Goals of Class: 1. To learn the tools and techniques of modern weather forecasting
2. To review more advanced topics in synoptic and mesoscale meteorology
Laboratory Exercises:
Surface map analysis (both North American, regional, and oceanic)
Daily forecasting at four cities
Student-led map discussion
Regional case studies (e.g., onshore push)
Forecast model intercomparisons
Course Outline
Introduction.
History of weather forecasting
Overview of the forecast process.
Basic approaches to forecasting primary meteorological parameters.
Numerical weather prediction
Data collection, assimilation, and model initialization
Description of the major models
Statistical forecasting approaches: MOS and Perfect Prog methods
Ensemble forecasting
Convective systems.
Review of their structure and evolution
Radar principles and interpretation.
Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convection.
Aviation meteorology
Forecasting aircraft icing, turbulence, and obstructions to visibility.
Diurnal and topographically forced circulations.
Structure and evolution
Forecasting near mountains and coastal zones
Northwest meteorology
Descriptions and forecast approaches for major regional features.
Hydrological and flood forecasting