Friday, May 3 -- Saturday, May 4, 2019
NOAA Western Regional Center, Seattle WA
©2010 Reid Wolcott Photography


Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop 2019

May 3-4, 2019 Building 9 Auditorium NOAA Western Regional Center 7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115

Agenda (Subject to Amendment)

Friday, 3 May

12:00-1:00 Registration

1:00-1:10 Welcome and Workshop Plans

Logan Johnson, MIC, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle

Session I: General Weather Events

1:10-1:25 The Top Weather and Climate Events of 2018

Karin Bumbaco and Nick Bond, Office of the Washington State Climatologist, JISAO, University of Washington

Session II : Wildfire Meteorology

1:25-1:40 Wildfires Are Causing Extreme PM2.5 Concentrations in the Western US

James R. Laing and Daniel A. Jaffe, University of Washington Bothell.

1:40-1:55 A first look at the CAMP Fire of November 8, 2018. Cliff Mass, UW

1:55-2:10 March Complex from March 18-21 Josh Clark, SITL, IMET

Meteorologist, Scientist IV Planning Section, Wildfire Division

2:10-2:25 The Diablo winds of northern/central California. Brandon McClung, UW

Atmospheric Sciences

2:25-2:40 Increasing Fire Severity, Smoke Impacts, and the Threat of a Major

Firestorm in Southwest Oregon and Northern California – Observations from Fire Season 2018. Tom Wright, National Weather Service, Medford

2:40-3:15 Break with refreshments

3:15-3:30 2017 Scatter Creek Fire – Lessons Learned on Weather and Fire Behavior.

Robert W. Scott, Fire Chief – Operations, West Thurston Regional Fire Authority. Olympia, WA

3:30-4:00 Regional summary of weather and wildfire activity for 2018. John Saltenberger. US Fish and Wildlife Service Fire Weather Program Manager, Northwest Interagency Coordination Center

4:00-4:15 An Overview of the 2018 Western Washington Fire Weather Season

Carly Kovacik, Senior Meteorologist, National Weather Service Samantha Borth, Meteorologist, National Weather Service Seattle WA, Jacob DeFlitch, Meteorologist, National Weather Service Seattle WA

Session III: Weather Communication and Observations

4:15-4:30 Snow events of February: looking through human impact perspective

Logan Johnson, MIC, NWS Seattle

4:30-4:45 Our Newest Operational Satellite - GOES-17

Mike Stavish. National Weather Service, Medford, Oregon

4:45-5:00 The BPA Meteorological Tower Network: May it Rest in Peace. A Look

at the Benefits and What We've Learned from this Unique NW Dataset. Jeff Lerner and Kyle Wade, Vaisala Inc.

6:00-9:00 Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center

4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105

Banquet Talk: The Cold and Snow Event of February 2019 Speaker: Regional Transportation Impacts of Snowmageddon 2019

Kayla Grayson, Emergency Manager, Washington State Department of Transportation, Northwest Region

6:00-7:00 PM Icebreaker – no host bar 7:00-8:00 Buffet Dinner 7:45-8:30 Presentation

Saturday, May 4

8:15-8:45 Registration and coffee

Session IV: OLYMPEX Field Program Results

9:00-9:15 The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX): Overview and

status. Lynn McMurdie, Robert Conrick, Joe Zagrodnik, UW

9:15-9:30 Rainfall prediction over the Olympic Peninsula: Is there a warm rain

problem? Robert Conrick and Cliff Mass. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

9:30-9:45 Multiscale precipitation enhancement processes in stratiform clouds

passing over the Olympic Mountains. Joe Zagrodnik, UW, Atmospheric Sciences

Session V: Regional Prediction

9:45- 10:00 The Ensemble Weather Forecasting System at the University of British

Columbia. Timothy Chun-Yiu Chui1, Roland Stull. Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia

10:00-10:15 Update on the UW WRF prediction system. Cliff Mass, UW

10:15-10:45 Coffee Break

10:45-11:00 Evaluating the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for

Weather Forecasting in British Columbia. Timothy Chun-Yiu Chui, Roland Stull. Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences University of British Columbia

Session VI: February Snow and Cold

11:00-11:15 Lowland Snow in Washington State from a Climate Perspective.

Nicholas A. Bond and Karin A. Bumbaco. Office of the Washington State Climatologist

11:15-11:30 Seattle’s Snowiest February on Record: Effectively Communicating

Uncertainty in High-Impact Lowland Snow Events. Courtney Obergfell NOAA/National Weather Service - Seattle, Washington

11:30-11:45 This Winters Impact on DNR’s reforestation nursery, Nabil

Khadduri, Nursery Scientist, Webster Forest Nursery, Washington State Department of Natural Resources

11:45-12:00 Lessons Learned from the Western Washington Snowstorms of February

2019 from a Private Citizen’s Perspective. Naeemah ‘Ni’ Cushmeer Private Citizen and Blogger (Cirrusly Weather Stories)

12:00- 1:00 Lunch

1:00-1:15 The Record Breaking Midwinter Rex Block Cold Snap of 2019

Melinda M Brugman, Revelstoke, BC

1:15-2:00 Panel discussion. How well did we forecast and communicate the snow

events of February 2019? Kayla Grayson, Reid, Me, Nick Bierman, and MJ McDermott, and Scott Sistek.

Session VI: Final Session

2:00-2:15 Can machines learn to predict weather? Jonathan Weyn,

Atmospheric Sciences, UW

2:15-2:30 Supercell mesocyclone development preceding the 18 December 2018 Port

Orchard tornado. Nick Biermann/ Weathernet, LLC

2:30-2:45 Crowd-sourced Marine Weather Data From Smartphone Applications. Jay

Albrecht. Seattle National Weather Service

2:45-3:00 Snow Morphology: What happens when it rains on the snowpack in the

mountains and lowlands Mr. Randy Cryer

3:00-3:05 Closing Remarks